The future of quantum computing is an exciting yet controversial topic, and today we're diving into the world of quantum stocks. The race to commercialize quantum technology is on, and two companies are leading the charge: IonQ and Rigetti Computing.
Both companies have a challenging road ahead, but their potential is immense. The quantum computing landscape has seen its fair share of ups and downs in 2025, with stocks experiencing a rollercoaster ride. After an impressive December 2024, pure-play quantum stocks took a dip, only to rebound later in the year, but then sold off again as market risk appetite waned.
IonQ and Rigetti, despite their October highs, have since seen significant drops, with IonQ down 43% and Rigetti down a whopping 60%. But here's where it gets interesting: could either company make a comeback in 2026?
These two companies approach quantum computing differently. All quantum computers rely on 'qubits' or quantum bits, but the way these qubits are created varies. The most common method involves cooling specially designed circuits to near absolute zero, turning them into superconductors governed by quantum mechanics.
Rigetti Computing and industry giants like Alphabet and Microsoft use these superconducting qubits. However, IonQ takes a unique path with trapped ion qubits, where each qubit is a single charged atom held in an electromagnetic field and cooled with lasers.
IonQ's approach has its advantages. It offers high fidelity and accuracy, and its qubits can maintain quantum states for longer, making it ideal for multistep algorithms. Error reduction and correction are critical in quantum computing, and IonQ's focus on accuracy has positioned it as a leader among pure-play companies.
IonQ has achieved an impressive 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, a measure of calculation accuracy. None of the superconducting qubit companies have crossed the 99.9% threshold, highlighting IonQ's significant lead. But there's a catch: trapped ion qubits have slower processing speeds compared to superconducting qubits.
While speed isn't a priority when accuracy is paramount, there may come a time when all competitors reach acceptable accuracy levels, and speed becomes the new battleground. If IonQ doesn't beat its competitors to the punch and establish an early presence in the market, it could face an uphill battle.
Rigetti Computing is trying to catch up with IonQ, but it's facing challenges. The quantum computer market is small, mostly limited to research contracts, and winning these contracts is crucial for pure-play companies' long-term survival.
One of the most significant developments in the sector is the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative by DARPA. In essence, the federal government is evaluating quantum computing technologies to determine if they can deliver on their promise cost-effectively and at scale. Unfortunately for Rigetti, it wasn't selected for Stage B of this initiative, while IonQ was, along with ten others.
DARPA has clarified that timelines vary and more companies could join Stage B later, but Rigetti's current status is a concern. This leans me towards IonQ as the stock to watch in 2026. However, both companies' share price performance is heavily influenced by market factors beyond their control.
The success of quantum computing stocks in 2026 will hinge on the market's risk appetite. Useful quantum computing is still years away, with many experts pointing to 2030 as the start of commercial viability. DARPA's initiative aims for utility-scale operation by 2033, which is a long wait for investors.
Quantum computing stocks are highly volatile, offering high-risk, high-reward potential. If you're not comfortable with such risk, an ETF approach might be a better option. The success of IonQ and Rigetti stocks in 2026 will depend more on market sentiment than on the companies' actual achievements. Their valuations today are highly speculative, and a risk-averse market could impact their performance.
However, I believe in companies that control their destiny. With IonQ and Rigetti facing stiff competition from well-funded giants like Microsoft and Alphabet, and relying on market sentiment for share price performance, the odds of a successful investment next year are low. But if they succeed in the long term, they could be massive winners.
