Bold statement: Antarctica is still full of hidden heat, and unlocking it could reshape how we understand the climate system. But here’s where it gets controversial: the full story hinges on measurements we’ve only just begun to collect, from both the ground and the sky. This collaboration among NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy, and Earth Sciences New Zealand aims to map a vast unknown in climate science—how much heat escapes from the Earth’s surface into space over Antarctica—by studying far infrared radiation.
Researchers from Earth Sciences New Zealand and the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center are focusing on far infrared radiation, a key component of the heat that leaves the planet. Principal Climate Scientist Dr. Sam Dean explains that far infrared radiation accounts for roughly half of the heat emitted by Earth’s surface. He notes that this radiation contributes to global warming through the greenhouse effect, particularly because water vapor—increasing as a response to warming—traps more of this radiation. In turn, more trapped radiation strengthens the planetary warming cycle as greenhouse gases and water vapor accumulate in the atmosphere.
Earth Sciences NZ recently deployed an Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) on Antarctica, courtesy of a loan from the U.S. Department of Energy. Over the next year, AERI will deliver novel observations of atmospheric infrared radiation and related constituents, including greenhouse gases.
The ground-based AERI measurements are coordinated with NASA’s PREFIRE mission, which features twin, compact satellites that orbit Earth and measure the same polar regions from above. These satellites, launched from Māhia Peninsula by Rocket Lab in 2024, provide a unique down-looking perspective that complements the ground observations—the first time such a combination has been attempted in Antarctica.
Dr. Dean emphasizes the significance: while PREFIRE looks down from orbit, AERI looks up from the ground. This unprecedented perspective can help us understand how Antarctic warming interacts with warming oceans to potentially accelerate ice melt, a trend already observed in Greenland.
Rocket Lab’s Morgan Connaughton highlights the value of New Zealand scientists contributing to a globally important study that leverages hardware launched from New Zealand. She notes that Rocket Lab has supported climate-focused missions before, but this project—where Kiwi scientists analyze satellite data launched from home soil—feels particularly meaningful. With capabilities in building and launching spacecraft and a strong pool of scientists and engineers, New Zealand is well positioned to lead in space science and its application to Earth science.
The poles play a critical role in regulating the planet’s temperature. Most solar energy warms the tropics first, where atmospheric and oceanic circulation carries heat toward the poles. At Antarctica, that heat is largely radiated back into space. Understanding the greenhouse effect and any shifts in radiation to space above Antarctica is essential for refining climate models and improving predictions of how climate change will impact polar regions—and how polar feedbacks may, in turn, influence global climate.
Professor Tristan L’Ecuyer of the University of Wisconsin notes that the lack of far-infrared measurements has limited our understanding of the Antarctic greenhouse effect and its influence on ice sheet temperature, melting, refreezing, and ultimately sea level. He reiterates that this collaboration among NASA, the U.S. DOE, and Earth Sciences New Zealand provides much-needed ground-based measurements to complement space-based observations and advance polar climate research.
This initiative is part of a broader international effort called SHIRE: the Southern Hemisphere polar Infrared Radiation Experiment. The AERI instrument comes from the U.S. DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility, and Earth Sciences NZ alongside the University of Canterbury will deploy additional instruments in the coming weeks to support SHIRE.
With Antarctica New Zealand’s backing, AERI will remain at Scott Base for at least October 2026, enabling ongoing observations through a critical period of climate change.
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